It also has the potential to even climb to 6%. But my- our view is that the terminal rate for interest rates is going to be around 5%. So that will determine, of course, ultimately, I think, where things shake out. Today, like you described, I look at 2023 trying to determine, you know, what is sort of the path of the economy? What is the path of the market? And I think a lot of that will still be dictated by the Federal Reserve as far as how hard they move on interest rates. So we were, you know, up front on that with our hedge fund, and it served us really well as we profited on the short side. I think a lot of investors were caught flat footed because they've seen from the past decade that, you know, this sector was, like, the best sector to own, and they weren't prepared for what occurred. And any changes to the fed funds rate and the discount rate will ultimately affect their earnings in a big way. So I think Livermore focused last year- actually going back over about a year and a half ago is when we became extremely bearish in terms of the market dynamics and also in terms of technology because, of course, they have the highest growth stories. What's the potential downside scenario in terms of the economy and markets?ĭAVID NEUHAUSER: Yeah, so that's an excellent question. Just wondering if that's aligning with what you're looking at. And I've been looking at the global credit impulses contract- in fact, crash last year, pointing to something happening maybe March, April of this year. Got to talk about the economy and your prediction for it because you don't think that we're going to get that soft landing here. And, David, thank you for joining us here today. And joining us now is David Neuhauser, Livermore Partners CIO.
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